Intervention Model of Sinabung Eruption to Occupancy of the Hotel in Brastagi, Indonesia

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of intervention of Sinabung eruption to the rate of hotel reservation in Brastagi, North Sumatera, Indonesia. The weekly data of this study was collected from four hotels in Brastagi for the period of January 2012 – May 2015. The method that be used is an analysis of the intervention with ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) process by Box – Jenkins. To see the stationary of data is used the plot of ACF (Autocorrelation Function). For identification of model is used the plot of PACF (Partial Autocorrelation Function), and to choose the best of model is used AIC (Akaike Information Criterion). Meanwhile to see the suitability of data to model is used Q-Statistics Ljung-Box. The result shows that decline the rate of  hotel reservation only  until the 30th period after the intervention. After that, the  rate of  hotel  reservation  will be as normal as before the eruption. The results of this study are limited,  valid only  on the subject of research, not generally applicable, to be generalizable needed further research.